June 25, 2026

Bitcoin may fall to a bottom price of 42,000-44,000.
BTC is currently trading within the $61.4K mark.

Jiang Zhuoer, a prominent Chinese Bitcoin miner and veteran market watcher, believes the current Bitcoin bear market could reach its final bottom between October and December 2026, with BTC potentially trading in the $42,000–$44,000 range.

The outlook is based on the behaviour of Strategy’s mNAV ratio, a metric that compares the company’s market value to the value of its BTC holdings. According to him, mNAV has fallen to 0.72, approaching the cycle low of 0.7 recorded on May 11, 2022, during the previous market downturn.

While the current mNAV level suggests deep pessimism in the market, Jiang cautioned that an mNAV bottom does not necessarily coincide with Bitcoin’s price bottom. In the previous cycle, Strategy’s mNAV hit its low when Bitcoin traded around $31,017.

However, BTC continued falling and reached its bear market low of $15,476 in November 2022, roughly six months later. Moreover, based on this historical pattern, Jiang argues that mNAV may serve as a leading indicator rather than a direct signal of Bitcoin’s final price floor.

He added that current market conditions, including the notable decoupling of Strategy’s STRC-related sentiment indicators, suggest mNAV is already trading within its lowest zone of this cycle.

A Four-Year Cycle Model Points to Late 2026

His forecast is built on a mathematical model that compares Bitcoin’s long-term market cycles to a bouncing ball, where each successive bounce becomes smaller as volatility declines. As Bitcoin’s market cap expands, price swings tend to moderate over time.

Jiang revealed that his recent trading strategy has involved reducing spot exposure and maintaining short positions. If his cycle thesis plays out, BTC could continue facing pressure through 2026 before entering its next major accumulation phase.

Is Bitcoin’s Price at Risk of a Steeper Downturn?

The largest asset, Bitcoin (BTC), is currently trading at $61,424, with its daily trading volume having surged by over 38.47% to the $42.98 billion mark. During the last 24 hours, the BTC market has experienced a liquidation of $411.91 million, as reported by the Coinglass data.

If the bearish phase intensifies, the BTC price could fall to the support at $61,320. Upon the downside correction gains more traction, the death cross might form, and send the price even lower. Assuming the current momentum shifts bullish, the price could climb to the resistance at $61,514. With the steady upside pressure, a golden cross would emerge and lead the price action to move up.

Both the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and signal lines are below the zero line, indicating that BTC is in a bearish trend. The sellers remain in control of the broader market, reflecting sustained downside pressure rather than a temporary pullback.

(Source: TradingView)

Besides, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.37 suggests a mild bearish trend. It is below the neutral level and remains above the oversold zone, with selling pressure present but not strong. The momentum is balanced, and a clear trend has yet to strengthen.

Crypto Market Highlights

Humanity Protocol (H) in Freefall: Can Buyers Halt the 35% Slide?

Keep Reading

Alphabet shares GOOG rose 1.8% on Wednesday after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced that the Google parent will replace Verizon Communications in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ahead of the opening of trading on June 29.

The move will also result in changes to the S&P 500, with Honeywell Aerospace set to replace Conagra Brands on the same date.

The update marks one of the most significant changes to the 30-stock Dow in recent years and increases the index’s exposure to large-cap technology companies.

Following the adjustment, five of the so-called Magnificent 7 companies will now be included in the benchmark.

S&P Dow Jones Indices said Verizon’s low share price meant it had an “immaterial impact” on the price-weighted index.

Alphabet, by contrast, has a stock price of around $350 compared with Verizon’s roughly $47, making it more influential in a price-weighted structure such as the Dow.

Tech representation in the Dow expands with Alphabet inclusion

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index, meaning companies with higher share prices carry greater influence regardless of market capitalization.

As a result, Alphabet is expected to account for approximately 4.0% of the index based on Tuesday’s closing price, making it the seventh-largest component.

S&P Dow Jones Indices said in a press release that “Alphabet’s diversified technology and digital services portfolio spans advertising, cloud infrastructure, artificial intelligence, hardware, autonomous mobility, healthcare technology, and media distribution.”

It added: “Adding Alphabet will broaden and strengthen the DJIA’s exposure to these dynamic areas of the US economy.”

Both Alphabet and Verizon are classified as communications stocks by S&P Dow Jones.

The inclusion also reflects a broader shift in the Dow’s composition over recent years.

Nvidia and Sherwin-Williams were added to the index in November 2024, replacing Dow Inc. and Intel.

After the latest change, most major technology companies—including Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon.com and Nvidia—will be represented in the Dow.

Honeywell International will remain in the index following the spinoff of Honeywell Aerospace.

Limited short-term impact expected on Alphabet stock

Despite the announcement, Alphabet’s share price reaction is expected to be limited.

The stock has fallen about 11% over the past month amid investor concerns about its artificial intelligence strategy and heavy spending.

Market history suggests index additions to the Dow do not typically generate sustained share price gains.

Because the Dow is not widely tracked by passive funds in the same way as the S&P 500, there is little forced buying pressure when companies are added or removed.

When Nvidia and Amazon.com joined the Dow in 2024, both stocks saw muted immediate reactions, with Nvidia falling 0.8% and Amazon slipping 0.1% on the day of inclusion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

While the direct impact on Alphabet shares may be limited, the inclusion underscores the increasing dominance of large technology companies in major US equity indices and the continued rebalancing of traditional benchmarks toward the tech sector.

The post Alphabet stock gains after Dow Jones inclusion announcement appeared first on Invezz